Want to win your league? Draft rookies. Lots of them. Stash them on your bench. Monitor them on waivers. Be on rookie watch. If you hit on an Emeka Egbuka or Ladd McConkey, you could win your league. If you don’t, you can just drop them for a waiver wire player (who is close to who you’d otherwise be drafting anyway).
One of the biggest market inefficiencies in fantasy football is the entire rookie class. There isn’t enough information available yet for experts, or for the drafting public to know how to correctly place them in the draft pool. They haven’t played in the NFL. Even the teams themselves don’t know their rookie skill players will end up on the depth chart or how their games will translate to the pro ranks.
Which means there are huge values to be had, and players who will be way more expensive in future drafts can be dirt cheap this year.
They’re lottery tickets, and targeting guys like Jonah Coleman on the Broncos, or De’Zhaun Stribling on the 49ers could be enormously boost your chances of winning if they pan out. And if they don’t, you can just pick up a boring veteran on the waiver wire to replace them later.
Keep in mind, sometimes it takes time for these guys to pop. So keep them on your bench if they’re not performing for as long as you can.
Bolded in the tables below are the rookies who were underrated in their initial fantasy “offering” back in 2025. We’ve compared their initial ADP (average draft position) to their market-corrected positioning the next season. Consider all of this data when you’re strategizing to build your team. We’ve included data from the previous six fantasy drafts as well, with the breakout players bolded. There are hits and misses, but you’ll see many more success stories than you expect.
Here’s a look at last year’s rookies and how they are ranked in 2026:
The market tried to correct things in 2025, with a lot of early picks going toward rookie RBs. But still there were some breakouts. Here’s a look at the last few years and how rookies were improperly valued by drafting teams, with 2024 up next:
PosPlayer2024 ADP2025 ADPWR Marvin Harrison Jr.26.237.7WRMalik Nabors47.216.4WRXavier Worthy74.842.3 RBJonathan Brooks80.1NRWRKeon Coleman91.483.2WRLadd McConkey92.229.6RBBlake Corum 100.6NRRB Trey Benson103.4139.7QBCaleb Williams103.4103.8 QBJayden Daniels106.326.5TEBrock Bowers117.246.1WRRome Odunze127.981.0 RBRay Davis137.0149.0 WRBrian Thomas138.817.5QBBo Nix150.064.1RBKimani Vidal154.2NRRBBucky Irving154.814.3RBBraelon Allen159.0144.3 RBTyrone TracyNR71.1WRRicky PearsellNR79.2QBDrake MayeNR111.7
In 2024, this trend continued. Puka Nakua, CJ Stroud and Tank Dell were all waiver wire additions in their first seasons. It’s possible if you are in a keeper league that you still have Nakua below market value on your roster:
In 2023, 13 of 20 rookies increased their fantasy value — 65% — which is a pretty good hit rate. It was even better in 2022-to-2023:
In 2022 every single rookie fantasy player — besides McBride, who broke out a year later, and Zamir White, who is slated to start for the Raiders this season — improved their fantasy stock after just one season.
The 2021 class:
Most rookies drafted in 2021 held their value at worst, with most of them getting better ADP in their second season. Getting good value is the entire purpose of a fantasy draft and rookies are like investments in stocks. They may not average 15 points per game in the first few weeks of the season, but the season is a grind and they could by Week 13.
Here is 2020’s rookie class and their leap to 2021:
PosPlayer2020 ADP2021 ADPRBClyde Edwards-Helaire5.618.3RBJonathan Taylor33.311.9RBCam Akers52.2NR (injured)RBJ.K. Dobbins69.9NR (injured)WRCeeDee Lamb102.631.1WR Jerry Jeudy111.668.1RBD’Andre Swift62.733.7WRJalen Reagor112.4161.0WRHenry Ruggs III114.1122.5QBJoe Burrow143.8110.2WRJustin Jefferson135.423.3RBZack Moss86.576.9WRBrandon Aiyuk154.655.8WRTee HigginsNR64.6WRMichael Pittman Jr.156.097.7QBTua TagovailoaNR158.0RBA.J. Dillon123.379.0WRLaviska Shenault Jr.NR92.1RBAntonio Gibson81.614.4WRBryan EdwardsNR151.6QBJustin HerbertNR61.2WRChase Claypool166.961.3QBJalen HurtsNR95.1
**Was drafted relatively highly and assumed a starter before season-ending injury.
You can see the trend loud and clear. Here’s one more class from 2019:
PosPlayer2019 ADP2020 ADPRBDavid Montgomery29.757.5RBJosh Jacobs31.89.4RBMiles Sanders52.413.4RBDevin Singletary82.952.8RBTony Pollard83.3119.8RBDarrell Henderson Jr.96.0127.0QBKyler Murray109.861.1RBJustice Hill111.8NRRBAlexander Mattison127.297.0WRD.K. Metcalf132.845.6TET.J. Hockenson136.2140.0WRMecole Hardman138.6109.6RBDamien Harris143.4103.3WRDeebo Samuel153.187.7WRK’Neal HarryND154.4TENoah FantND115.6WRMarquise BrownND57.7WRA.J. BrownND42.2WR Diontae JohnsonND94.0
